What to expect...

After selecting a large number of articles regarding the current situation of NBA franchises that are in danger of relocating, as well as that of cities that are targeting an NBA team, I think it would be a good idea to write an article on what could possibly happen to the NBA in the foreseeable future.
What I am planning to do is analyze the situation of potential NBA cities, before I discuss the problems some NBA franchises are facing that might lead them to move elsewhere. By the way, I am planning to better organize the articles at some point.

One thing not many people know about the NBA, is that there is a radius of 75 miles surrounding each NBA city, in which no other NBA team is permitted to locate. That pretty much eliminates options such as San Jose (the NHL's San Jose Sharks have expressed an interest in buying an NBA franchise), Anaheim, Baltimore or Austin.
So what cities are we left with then that have an interest in the NBA?


Well, first of all there's Oklahoma City. The 2 years the Hornets spent in Oklahoma have made David Stern call the city the top candidate for a new team. OKC is indeed a small market but the fact that there are no other major leagues in town and that the city supported the Hornets, makes them a rather safe choice.

The second city the NBA, as well as every other major league has had an eye on the past few years, is none other than Las Vegas.
Las Vegas is probably the most rapidly growing city in North America, a growth that is to a large extent, the result of the city's huge gambling industry, which also happens to be the main reason why major leagues have avoided placing a franchise in the Nevada desert. Las Vegas, however hosted the last All-Star Game and David Stern who had always been opposed to the idea of moving to the City of sin, said that if the board of owners approves a move to LV, he wouldn't object. The NBA will have a very hard time convincing the local betting agencies to ban betting on NBA games, but that probably isn't as big of a problem as it was originally thought to be.
Regardless of that a move to Vegas is impossible until the city has a state-of-the-art arena, which will obviously take a few years to be built.

The LV City Council is at this very moment fielding proposals for a large entertainment development downtown that will include a full-size basketball/hockey arena. The council will choose one of the pitches, and an arena will be built.

We all know about Mayor Goodman's discussions with Stern but there is also heavy interest in bringing an NHL team in Vegas. Megaproducer of TV/Movie garbage Jerry Bruckheimer is supposedly heavily interested in ownership in such a venture. There is already a minor league hockey franchise that does OK, and back in the 90s, there was another minor league hockey team (Thunder), which did very well for a while, regularly drawing 8-10k, before fizzling out 10 years later. The NHL has been hemmoraging cash for a long time and Vegas could give it a nice shot in the arm. There is an issue with hockey betting as well, but it isn't nearly the obstacle of taking hoops betting off the books.



Another city that has been building an NBA-caliber arena and is looking for either an NBA or an NHL team is Kansas City. The Sprint Center which opens in October looks fabulous, but the fact that the city already has an NFL and an MLB team makes them a longshot for getting an NBA franchise that is looking to move.

While searching the internet for information on potential NBA cities, I was lucky enough to find a research paper on the subject at SportsEconomics.com, according to which the U.S. cities that have the best chance of supporting an NBA franchise are:
1. Hartford, CT
2. Louisville, KY
3. Baltimore, MD
4. Norfolk, VA
5. San Diego, CA

The results of the econometric model are very interesting, considering the fact that Hartford has rarely been mentioned as a city that could have its own NBA franchise. There have recently been some talks of building a new arena, mostly for an NHL team, but if the arena is ready, the NBA might become interested as well.
Louisville had been mentioned as a possible destination for both the Grizzlies and the Hornets, but in both cases, the owners chose a different city. Louisville has a huge basketball tradition and is building a new arena, its proximity however to Indianapolis as well as the fact that it is a small market where college basketball is very popular, has made NBA teams so far show a preference to other cities.
Virginia is the largest state that isn't represented in any of the 4 major leagues. That alone makes Hampton Roads a very desirable destination, but the fact that the area has no arena makes them a longshot for now.
San Diego finally (the largest city in the United States without an NBA team) had attracted some interest from the Grizzlies in 2001, but the problems they were having with their baseball team and their new ballpark at the time, made the Grizzlies turn to other options. The fact that there is no arena and that the Clippers were forced to leave almost 2 decades ago due to the extremely low attendance numbers, will make the NBA think twice before they move back to SD.

With the NBA going global, it wouldn't surprise me, if at some point in the future, the NBA explores the possibility of moving to Mexico. While Mexico City is enormous and the NBA has been trying to make its presence felt in Latin America for some time now, it will be awhile before they seriously consider moving south of the border. One day it could happen though.

Next: the NBA in other continents, European expansion and which NBA teams are in danger of moving.