cities in trouble...

So which cities are in danger of losing their teams?
Knowing how painful it is for fans of a team to discuss this topic, I will try to be as objective as possible. What follows is a list of teams that have either hinted at leaving or are seriously considering such a move.

Seattle Supersonics: What really surprised me after doing some research on the Sonics' issue is that both the Sonics' fans and the media have been resigned to the fact that the Sonics will move eastwards next summer. I'll try to summarize the situation to give everyone a better understanding of what is going on in Seattle.
Last summer, Sonics' owner Howard Schultz (also owner of the Starbucks franchise), decided to sell the Sonics because the team was losing money at the Key Arena. The lease the team had with the city (which ends in 2010) gave them only a small percentage of the profits the arena made. City officials have shown an interest in re-structuring the deal, but the new owner, Oklahoma-based businessman, Clay Bennett believes that the only way the Sonics can be a profitable franchise is by building a new arena, something no one seems to want in Seattle.
Bennett has made several proposals, which have been rejected and has now set a deadline (October 31) after which he plans to apply for relocation. Bennett has already visited 2 cities which would like to acquire an NBA team: Oklahoma City and Kansas City and appears to have a preference for Oklahoma City for 3 reasons. The first one is the support the city showed to the Hornets the last 2 seasons, the second one is that unlike Kansas City, there are no other major leagues in town and the third one is that he is an oklahoman himself. The only problem for Bennett right now appears to be the fact that he would have to break the lease, since it wouldn't make sense to stay in Seattle until 2010 when it has already been decided the team will leave. Apparently, he is willing to do that despite the fact that the city is planning to ask for a rather large amount of money.
Should the Seattle fans despair? Well maybe not yet. It appears that there is one proposal that might save the Sonics and keep them in the state of Washington. The Native American Muckleshoot tribe is seriously considering building an arena for the Sonics in the town of Auburn, WA, 24 miles from Seattle. If their plan works out and they make a viable offer to Bennett before his deadline expires, the Sonics might stay in the Northwest after all.
What is David Stern's position on all this? What Stern has said is that he wants the Sonics to stay in Seattle and that he believes a solution will be found, on the other hand he believes it is totally necessary to build a new arena.

Arena problems: Seattle isn't the only NBA city that has been having problems with its lack of a suitable venue. At this point in time it appears that Sacramento is in an equally bad position. The Kings' owners (the Maloof brothers) have been trying to convince the city to build a new arena, something they haven't been able to accomplish yet and which has made many think they might be planning to move to Las Vegas where their business headquarters are. David Stern is taking a closer look at the situation right now, but at the same time assures the people in Sacramento that the team has no intention of leaving.
The Milwaukee Bucks which are on a year-to-year lease with the Bradley Center, are also in need of a new arena. The team is owned by Wisconsin senator Herb Kohl, so the chances of them exploring other options away from Milwaukee are minimal, but they will definitely be looking at a long-term solution for their problem.
The Orlando Magic have also been rumored many times to be a team seeking a new home.
They have been playing at the same arena ever since they entered the NBA and their owner, Rich DeVos has been trying to find a solution. It is rather unlikely that they will leave Florida, but as long as the problem exists, anything is possible.
Finally, there's the Portland Trailblazers, whose situation at the Rose Garden was rather similar to that of the Sonics. That's until Vulcan, the investment arm for billionaire and Portland Trail Blazers owner Paul Allen, acquired Portland Arena Management and its assets -- primarily the Rose Garden in April. The franchise after drafting Greg Oden has become profitable again.

Money issues: The NBA after a couple of decades of stability saw two teams this decade (the Grizzlies and the Hornets) move. While at the time, that didn't seem to be a bad move for either of them, the truth is that neither team has been as successful financially as they thought they would be, which is what has made David Stern say that 30 teams are more than enough for now and that the NBA won't expand again, at least not in North America. Lets take a closer at each of these situations.

New Orleans: Everyone is familiar with the Katrina disaster and the harm it caused to the people of New Orleans. Because of that, the Hornets were forced to play for 2 years in Oklahoma City but they're now returning to Louisiana.
The year before the Katrina, the Hornets had the lowest attendance numbers in the NBA, which made many people question their relocation to New Orleans, a small market that is dominated by the local football team, the Saints. After the Katrina, the city's population has diminished even more, which made many believe it was a foregone conclusion the team would leave, if not now, at least after their lease with the New Orleans Arena expires in 2012.
However, lately it appears that both state officials and local businessmen have been making a solid effort to keep the team in the area. Recently, the Louisiana government agreed to build practice facilities for the Hornets (something that was promised when the team moved to the city from Charlotte), while the team is getting a local minority owner, something that will please both George Shinn, the team's owner, as well as David Stern.

Memphis Grizzlies: When the Grizzlies decided to leave Vancouver, without ever having been to the play-offs and with the team facing financial difficulties, everyone was looking forward to a better future. And while the team has had some success in Tennessee, the truth is that the Grizzlies haven't been able to generate the excitement one would expect from a city that has no other major league franchises. This year for example the Grizzlies were last in attendance.

Charlotte Bobcats: After the Hornets left North Carolina, David Stern decided to award Charlotte a new NBA franchise. While North Carolina is a state with a huge basketball tradition, the team hasn't become the huge draw the Hornets were in their first few years in the league, before George Shinn began to trade away the team's stars, Alonzo Mourning and Larry Johnson, which alienated many fans.
Many have questioned Stern's decision, while others believe that giving a second franchise to a larger market like Vancouver would have made more sense, but Stern was counting on the fact that Charlotte had been very supportive of the Hornets when they first entered the league. The fans of Charlotte seem to have taken a wait-and-see approach, hoping the team will become competitive (which is understandable) but another factor responsible for the relatively low levels of excitement might be that while in 1988 the Hornets were the first major league franchise Charlotte ever had, the city now also happens to have an NFL franchise. Major league sports are not the novelty they used to be. The team however had a new arena built 2 years ago, they have a young roster and they hope the recent acquisition of Jason Richardson will propel them to the play-offs.

New Jersey Nets: The Nets' new ownership group, led by real estate developer, Bruce Ratner, has been trying for a few years now to build a new arena for the team in Brooklyn. If that happens, the team will more than likely be renamed, the Brooklyn Nets. There have been many protests against Ratner's plan both by citizens and local businesses and it remains to be seen whether the project (which has the support of NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg) will be completed. Living in New York, I would say that the last thing New York needs is more buildings, on the other hand, I do realize that the Meadowlands arena is the oldest in the NBA. It will be interesting to see what happens.


Finally a few links that would give a better idea of how strong each market is and which other cities could perhaps support an NBA franchise.

USA metropolitan areas by population

Canadian metropolitan areas by population

NBA attendance report

NBA arenas: Capacity and year built