Friday, August 17, 2007

Euroleague attendance records 2006-07

David Stern said in a recent radio interview in New York City that expansion into Europe and possibly Latin America will happen much sooner than expected.
He even named several teams and cities that he thinks could join the league before 2012.
Because of this I thought it would be a good idea to make a list of the attendance records of all Euroleague teams last year. The arenas are smaller in Europe and the teams do a terrible job marketing their product, still the results are quite interesting.

1. Maccabi Tel Aviv: 10,500
1. Panathinaikos Athens: 10,500
3. Unicaja Malaga: 9,525
4. Tau Vitoria: 8,334
5. Olympiacos Piraeus: 7,441
6. Fenerbahce Istanbul: 7,100
7. Partizan Belgrade: 6,981
8. Efes Pilsen Istanbul: 6,680
9. Pau-Orthez: 6,330
10. Le Mans: 5,057
11. Joventut Badalona: 5,051
12. Aris Thessaloniki: 4,950
13. Barcelona: 4,608
14. Prokom Sopot: 4,470
15. CSKA Moscow: 4,458
16. Zalgiris Kaunas: 4,438
17. Olimpija Ljubljana: 4,429
18. Climamio Bologna: 4,389
19. Cibona Zagreb: 4,314
20. Benetton Treviso: 3,681
21. Napoli: 3,605
22. Rhein Energie Koln: 2,963
23. Dynamo Moscow: 2,773
24. Lottomatica Roma: 2,670

Friday, July 20, 2007

a done deal or not?

Clay Bennett, the owner of the Seattle SuperSonics announced yesterday that if a new arena isn't built in Seattle, he is planning to file for relocation to Oklahoma City by October 31st.
With the recent vote against the public funding of a new arena in Seattle, is moving to Oklahoma a done deal? Bennett being an Oklahoman himself would be very happy with such a development and he firmly believes that moving to a city with no other major league franchises would be beneficial to the Sonics.

There is however one obstacle that might stop the Sonics from leaving the Northwest.
The team at the moment has a lease with the Key Arena that expires in 2010. Bennett has publicly stated that if he decides to move the team, he is willing to negotiate a buy-out from the lease in order to move to Oklahoma City in 2008. The city of Seattle however at the moment does not appear to have any intention of breaking the lease prematurely. If Bennett makes a very lucrative offer will they insist on keeping the team in Seattle until 2010 knowing that they will most likely lose them then without getting anything in return?
It is very possible. A lot of things could change in 3 years. There already are some efforts by local developers to build an arena in the Seattle suburbs of Auburn (by the native american Muckleshoot tribe) and Tukwila and if that happens until 2010 and the Sonics are still in Seattle by then, they will more than likely stay there for a very long time.

Bennett appears to have made up his mind and frankly, I don't think he should be blamed for this situation. Everyone from the very beginning knew what he wanted even if he wouldn't admit it to the media. I think the blame should fall on the previous owner, Howard Schultz instead, who sold the team to a group of Oklahoma City businessmen, when he knew very well that Oklahoma City was looking for a team.
It will be interesting to see how things will work out.

Friday, July 6, 2007

an NBA in China

An interesting article about Stern's plans to start a second NBA league in China. I wonder if it will work.
It also sounds like Orlando is working on solving their arena problem. On July 26, Orlando politicians will vote on the issue of building a new arena.

WASHINGTON -- NBA commissioner David Stern sees more of a need for new pro basketball teams in China than in North America.

"I think 30 teams is a nice, round number, and I would not be recommending to the NBA owners to expand," Stern said Monday before Game 4 of the first-round playoff series between the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers.

"We will see in the next couple of years, coming out of the Beijing Olympics, the possibility of some joint venture between the NBA and someone in China about an NBA-sponsored and -branded league in China."

Stern added that "an NBA of China" is closer to happening than what he called a 20-year plan for having five franchises in Europe, and that, "domestically, we have enough teams."

Monday, July 2, 2007

cities in trouble...

So which cities are in danger of losing their teams?
Knowing how painful it is for fans of a team to discuss this topic, I will try to be as objective as possible. What follows is a list of teams that have either hinted at leaving or are seriously considering such a move.

Seattle Supersonics: What really surprised me after doing some research on the Sonics' issue is that both the Sonics' fans and the media have been resigned to the fact that the Sonics will move eastwards next summer. I'll try to summarize the situation to give everyone a better understanding of what is going on in Seattle.
Last summer, Sonics' owner Howard Schultz (also owner of the Starbucks franchise), decided to sell the Sonics because the team was losing money at the Key Arena. The lease the team had with the city (which ends in 2010) gave them only a small percentage of the profits the arena made. City officials have shown an interest in re-structuring the deal, but the new owner, Oklahoma-based businessman, Clay Bennett believes that the only way the Sonics can be a profitable franchise is by building a new arena, something no one seems to want in Seattle.
Bennett has made several proposals, which have been rejected and has now set a deadline (October 31) after which he plans to apply for relocation. Bennett has already visited 2 cities which would like to acquire an NBA team: Oklahoma City and Kansas City and appears to have a preference for Oklahoma City for 3 reasons. The first one is the support the city showed to the Hornets the last 2 seasons, the second one is that unlike Kansas City, there are no other major leagues in town and the third one is that he is an oklahoman himself. The only problem for Bennett right now appears to be the fact that he would have to break the lease, since it wouldn't make sense to stay in Seattle until 2010 when it has already been decided the team will leave. Apparently, he is willing to do that despite the fact that the city is planning to ask for a rather large amount of money.
Should the Seattle fans despair? Well maybe not yet. It appears that there is one proposal that might save the Sonics and keep them in the state of Washington. The Native American Muckleshoot tribe is seriously considering building an arena for the Sonics in the town of Auburn, WA, 24 miles from Seattle. If their plan works out and they make a viable offer to Bennett before his deadline expires, the Sonics might stay in the Northwest after all.
What is David Stern's position on all this? What Stern has said is that he wants the Sonics to stay in Seattle and that he believes a solution will be found, on the other hand he believes it is totally necessary to build a new arena.

Arena problems: Seattle isn't the only NBA city that has been having problems with its lack of a suitable venue. At this point in time it appears that Sacramento is in an equally bad position. The Kings' owners (the Maloof brothers) have been trying to convince the city to build a new arena, something they haven't been able to accomplish yet and which has made many think they might be planning to move to Las Vegas where their business headquarters are. David Stern is taking a closer look at the situation right now, but at the same time assures the people in Sacramento that the team has no intention of leaving.
The Milwaukee Bucks which are on a year-to-year lease with the Bradley Center, are also in need of a new arena. The team is owned by Wisconsin senator Herb Kohl, so the chances of them exploring other options away from Milwaukee are minimal, but they will definitely be looking at a long-term solution for their problem.
The Orlando Magic have also been rumored many times to be a team seeking a new home.
They have been playing at the same arena ever since they entered the NBA and their owner, Rich DeVos has been trying to find a solution. It is rather unlikely that they will leave Florida, but as long as the problem exists, anything is possible.
Finally, there's the Portland Trailblazers, whose situation at the Rose Garden was rather similar to that of the Sonics. That's until Vulcan, the investment arm for billionaire and Portland Trail Blazers owner Paul Allen, acquired Portland Arena Management and its assets -- primarily the Rose Garden in April. The franchise after drafting Greg Oden has become profitable again.

Money issues: The NBA after a couple of decades of stability saw two teams this decade (the Grizzlies and the Hornets) move. While at the time, that didn't seem to be a bad move for either of them, the truth is that neither team has been as successful financially as they thought they would be, which is what has made David Stern say that 30 teams are more than enough for now and that the NBA won't expand again, at least not in North America. Lets take a closer at each of these situations.

New Orleans: Everyone is familiar with the Katrina disaster and the harm it caused to the people of New Orleans. Because of that, the Hornets were forced to play for 2 years in Oklahoma City but they're now returning to Louisiana.
The year before the Katrina, the Hornets had the lowest attendance numbers in the NBA, which made many people question their relocation to New Orleans, a small market that is dominated by the local football team, the Saints. After the Katrina, the city's population has diminished even more, which made many believe it was a foregone conclusion the team would leave, if not now, at least after their lease with the New Orleans Arena expires in 2012.
However, lately it appears that both state officials and local businessmen have been making a solid effort to keep the team in the area. Recently, the Louisiana government agreed to build practice facilities for the Hornets (something that was promised when the team moved to the city from Charlotte), while the team is getting a local minority owner, something that will please both George Shinn, the team's owner, as well as David Stern.

Memphis Grizzlies: When the Grizzlies decided to leave Vancouver, without ever having been to the play-offs and with the team facing financial difficulties, everyone was looking forward to a better future. And while the team has had some success in Tennessee, the truth is that the Grizzlies haven't been able to generate the excitement one would expect from a city that has no other major league franchises. This year for example the Grizzlies were last in attendance.

Charlotte Bobcats: After the Hornets left North Carolina, David Stern decided to award Charlotte a new NBA franchise. While North Carolina is a state with a huge basketball tradition, the team hasn't become the huge draw the Hornets were in their first few years in the league, before George Shinn began to trade away the team's stars, Alonzo Mourning and Larry Johnson, which alienated many fans.
Many have questioned Stern's decision, while others believe that giving a second franchise to a larger market like Vancouver would have made more sense, but Stern was counting on the fact that Charlotte had been very supportive of the Hornets when they first entered the league. The fans of Charlotte seem to have taken a wait-and-see approach, hoping the team will become competitive (which is understandable) but another factor responsible for the relatively low levels of excitement might be that while in 1988 the Hornets were the first major league franchise Charlotte ever had, the city now also happens to have an NFL franchise. Major league sports are not the novelty they used to be. The team however had a new arena built 2 years ago, they have a young roster and they hope the recent acquisition of Jason Richardson will propel them to the play-offs.

New Jersey Nets: The Nets' new ownership group, led by real estate developer, Bruce Ratner, has been trying for a few years now to build a new arena for the team in Brooklyn. If that happens, the team will more than likely be renamed, the Brooklyn Nets. There have been many protests against Ratner's plan both by citizens and local businesses and it remains to be seen whether the project (which has the support of NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg) will be completed. Living in New York, I would say that the last thing New York needs is more buildings, on the other hand, I do realize that the Meadowlands arena is the oldest in the NBA. It will be interesting to see what happens.


Finally a few links that would give a better idea of how strong each market is and which other cities could perhaps support an NBA franchise.

USA metropolitan areas by population

Canadian metropolitan areas by population

NBA attendance report

NBA arenas: Capacity and year built

The NBA goes global?

David Stern, regardless of what people think of him is a visionary. He took the NBA when it had many problems and managed to turn it into the most popular sports league in the world, ahead of the UEFA Champions League or the NFL. Even in countries where basketball has no tradition, people are aware of Michael Jordan, Shaq and all the other NBA superstars. And from the look of it, he isn't going to stop. The NBA will continue to pursue opportunities overseas that no other league can even dream of.
Last year, during the NBA pre-season, when NBA teams were touring Europe, Vlade Divac made a very interesting proposal that would eventually bring the NBA to Europe.
The idea is that when the NBA expands to Europe, it doesn't do it with just one team, but with 5 teams that enter the league simultaneously and form a new European division.
While at this point in time, the idea sounds insane, that might not be the case in a few years. David Stern himself admitted that such a thing won't happen, at least for a decade.
So what are the obstacles that won't allow the NBA to make such a move?
One would think that traveling across the Atlantic every month or so would be exhausting for the teams and their players, but David Stern doesn't believe this is the biggest problem the NBA would have to face. The technology after all continues to improve, and in a decade or so, for all we know, flying from New York to London, won't take more than an hour or two.
The main problem at this point in time is the lack of NBA-caliber facilities in major european cities. So until the NBA finds 5 cities, with arenas that fit NBA standards as well as 5 ownership groups willing to spend the expansion/relocation fee, the NBA's European Division will have to wait.


Last year when this discussion took place, the only arena in Europe that could host NBA games according to David Stern is the Kolnarena, in Cologne, Germany, one of the largest metropolitan areas in Europe.


The second arena of such standards that was recently completed is the O2 Arena in London and the plan is for the arena to host NBA regular season games some time in the future.
Real Madrid, the team for whose front-office Vlade Divac works for, has announced its plans to build a similar arena and the same is true for two other major european cities: Berlin and Moscow.
A division with teams in Berlin, Cologne, London, Madrid and Moscow, doesn't sound too bad now, does it?
Even if the ownership groups are found and the arenas are built, there are still some problems that need to be solved before the NBA makes such a move. While Real Madrid or CSKA Moscow are basketball powerhouses, countries such as England or Germany don't have much of a basketball tradition and it remains to be seen whether the fan interest in an NBA team will be able to keep them there for a long time. Also, even in cities such as Madrid or Moscow, soccer is far more popular than basketball and it is impossible to know if the teams will be able to draw huge crowds for 41 nights.
As difficult as it appears to be in the year 2007 to make such a move, what cannot be disputed is that if there is one sports league that can attempt something like this with a chance of success, it's definitely the NBA.

In the meantime, David Stern, who is always 2 steps ahead of everyone else, is already planning of starting minor leagues in Asia, Latin America or Africa.

It might take some time before the NBA becomes the WBA (World Basketball Association), but one day it probably will happen.

What to expect...

After selecting a large number of articles regarding the current situation of NBA franchises that are in danger of relocating, as well as that of cities that are targeting an NBA team, I think it would be a good idea to write an article on what could possibly happen to the NBA in the foreseeable future.
What I am planning to do is analyze the situation of potential NBA cities, before I discuss the problems some NBA franchises are facing that might lead them to move elsewhere. By the way, I am planning to better organize the articles at some point.

One thing not many people know about the NBA, is that there is a radius of 75 miles surrounding each NBA city, in which no other NBA team is permitted to locate. That pretty much eliminates options such as San Jose (the NHL's San Jose Sharks have expressed an interest in buying an NBA franchise), Anaheim, Baltimore or Austin.
So what cities are we left with then that have an interest in the NBA?


Well, first of all there's Oklahoma City. The 2 years the Hornets spent in Oklahoma have made David Stern call the city the top candidate for a new team. OKC is indeed a small market but the fact that there are no other major leagues in town and that the city supported the Hornets, makes them a rather safe choice.

The second city the NBA, as well as every other major league has had an eye on the past few years, is none other than Las Vegas.
Las Vegas is probably the most rapidly growing city in North America, a growth that is to a large extent, the result of the city's huge gambling industry, which also happens to be the main reason why major leagues have avoided placing a franchise in the Nevada desert. Las Vegas, however hosted the last All-Star Game and David Stern who had always been opposed to the idea of moving to the City of sin, said that if the board of owners approves a move to LV, he wouldn't object. The NBA will have a very hard time convincing the local betting agencies to ban betting on NBA games, but that probably isn't as big of a problem as it was originally thought to be.
Regardless of that a move to Vegas is impossible until the city has a state-of-the-art arena, which will obviously take a few years to be built.

The LV City Council is at this very moment fielding proposals for a large entertainment development downtown that will include a full-size basketball/hockey arena. The council will choose one of the pitches, and an arena will be built.

We all know about Mayor Goodman's discussions with Stern but there is also heavy interest in bringing an NHL team in Vegas. Megaproducer of TV/Movie garbage Jerry Bruckheimer is supposedly heavily interested in ownership in such a venture. There is already a minor league hockey franchise that does OK, and back in the 90s, there was another minor league hockey team (Thunder), which did very well for a while, regularly drawing 8-10k, before fizzling out 10 years later. The NHL has been hemmoraging cash for a long time and Vegas could give it a nice shot in the arm. There is an issue with hockey betting as well, but it isn't nearly the obstacle of taking hoops betting off the books.



Another city that has been building an NBA-caliber arena and is looking for either an NBA or an NHL team is Kansas City. The Sprint Center which opens in October looks fabulous, but the fact that the city already has an NFL and an MLB team makes them a longshot for getting an NBA franchise that is looking to move.

While searching the internet for information on potential NBA cities, I was lucky enough to find a research paper on the subject at SportsEconomics.com, according to which the U.S. cities that have the best chance of supporting an NBA franchise are:
1. Hartford, CT
2. Louisville, KY
3. Baltimore, MD
4. Norfolk, VA
5. San Diego, CA

The results of the econometric model are very interesting, considering the fact that Hartford has rarely been mentioned as a city that could have its own NBA franchise. There have recently been some talks of building a new arena, mostly for an NHL team, but if the arena is ready, the NBA might become interested as well.
Louisville had been mentioned as a possible destination for both the Grizzlies and the Hornets, but in both cases, the owners chose a different city. Louisville has a huge basketball tradition and is building a new arena, its proximity however to Indianapolis as well as the fact that it is a small market where college basketball is very popular, has made NBA teams so far show a preference to other cities.
Virginia is the largest state that isn't represented in any of the 4 major leagues. That alone makes Hampton Roads a very desirable destination, but the fact that the area has no arena makes them a longshot for now.
San Diego finally (the largest city in the United States without an NBA team) had attracted some interest from the Grizzlies in 2001, but the problems they were having with their baseball team and their new ballpark at the time, made the Grizzlies turn to other options. The fact that there is no arena and that the Clippers were forced to leave almost 2 decades ago due to the extremely low attendance numbers, will make the NBA think twice before they move back to SD.

With the NBA going global, it wouldn't surprise me, if at some point in the future, the NBA explores the possibility of moving to Mexico. While Mexico City is enormous and the NBA has been trying to make its presence felt in Latin America for some time now, it will be awhile before they seriously consider moving south of the border. One day it could happen though.

Next: the NBA in other continents, European expansion and which NBA teams are in danger of moving.

Sunday, July 1, 2007

NBA expansion articles

Divac proposes a plan for an NBA division in Europe with teams in Moscow, Madrid, Cologne, London and Berlin. The distances are a problem however.
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Real Madrid to build an NBA ready arena that will be completed by 2008. London already has a building, while Berlin and Moscow have similar plans. The European division is at least a decade away from happening. Right now, the only NBA-caliber arena is the Koln Arena in Cologne. The lack of suitable venues -- not travel or scheduling problems -- remains the biggest single obstacle to possible European development.
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"Realistically, the places we could place NBA teams would be Mexico and Europe from a travel perspective. The places where we would consider NBA-sponsored leagues would be anyplace, including Asia, Latin America, Africa and Europe," Stern said.
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relocation articles p.2

The Sonics would have to negotiate a costly buy-out from their lease in order to move before 2010
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Save our Sonics website
http://www.saveoursonics.org/

Stern will not stand in the way if the board of owners approves a move to LV. Will the Maloofs try to move the Kings there?
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The Muckleshoot tribe examine the possibility of building an arena in Auburn, WA.
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OKC is the top candidate for a new team according to D. Stern. Bennett will pay to break the lease.
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Bennett considering only 2 cities: OKC and KC. Concerned about their viability but prefers OKC because KC already has 2 teams.
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D. Stern says that he will do anything he can to have an arena for the Kings built in Sacramento. There will be no expansion anytime soon unless it takes place in China or Europe. LV casinos were very disappointed with the ASG. Charlotte, Memphis and NO have problems.
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Shinn is getting a local minority owner and the state of Louisiana is going to build the $18 million practice facility the Hornets were promised when they moved to NO.
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NBA in Europe not before 2010. With the exception of London, there isn't much support for publicly funded NBA caliber arenas. The only fear for the Hornets' future in NO is based on storms that might further damage the area.
In Orlando, the drawn-out negotiations between the city and Magic owner Rich DeVos continue. On the table is a proposal to build an arena, convention center, and renovations to the Citrus Bowl. In Milwaukee and Minnesota, ownership groups of both franchises have already begun to express interest in building new arenas within the next decade.
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Stern wants to keep the Sonics to Seattle.
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Bennett has had introductory meetings with the Muckleshoot Tribe in Auburn as well as Seattle developer Dave Sabey, who is attempting to put together a multipurpose Tukwila project.
If Bennett wants to break the lease it is not certain the city will agree to his offer.
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The proposals for arenas in Auburn or Tukwila, WA haven't made much progress. The Muckleshoot tribe will make a decision soon.
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NBA relocation articles

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Norfolk advantages: There are no other major leagues teams in the area.
They don't have an arena yet but they are planning to build one.

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Article about the problems NO, Memphis and Charlotte are facing.

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The Hornets have a lease with the NO Arena until 2012 but staying there depends on whether the city will build the team's practice facilities.

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Oklahoma City becomes an attractive destination for an NBA team. George Shinn praises the city for their support to the Hornets.

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Sonics' ownership group voices their intention to stay in Seattle, pointing out however that they might be forced to pursue opportunities in other cities such as OKC.

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Bennett continues to state that if his Oct. 31 deadline for reaching a deal for a new arena for his Sonics and Storm organization isn't met, he'll relocate. He has until March 1 to file for relocation through the NBA. OKC and Kansas City the two possible destinations.
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Durant wants the team to stay in Seattle.
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Some comments on what Bennett to do to keep the Sonics in Seattle.

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Louisville interested in an NBA team.
The choice of a city depends on at least three major factors: the owner's personal preference, the political climate, and the economics of the location.
In the NBA, there is a radius of 75 miles surrounding each NBA team in which no other NBA team is permitted to locate. Moreover, no team can move into the market area of another franchise without the consent of that owner.
The cities of Memphis, Hartford, Louisville, Baltimore, Norfolk, and San Diego rank high using the Financial Success Model. NO ranks low in the model.
The Grizzlies in 2001 considered San Diego, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Memphis, and Louisville. SD showed no interest because of their baseball stadium issue. LV was ruled out because of its gambling ties.

Speculation that there will be many moves by the end of the decade.
The Nets will move to Brooklyn, Seattle to OKC while two more moves are expected. The Sonics have a deal with their arena until 2010 but they might move earlier.
Kansas City is scheduled to complete its new, publicly funded arena, with no big-time pro sports tenant, in 2007. Louisville, assuming a few recent political snags are worked out, is just about to get started on building a new, publicly funded arena.
Meanwhile, the owners of the NHL’s San Jose Sharks put in a bid for the Sonics to get an NBA team in the Bay Area that might be capable of making the playoffs. Interests in Orange County, Calif., are also making clear they want the NBA. And you never know if Norfolk, Va., and St. Louis might reawaken dormant but formerly active plans to lure teams there. If the NBA ever gave a true thumbs-up to Las Vegas (the gambling issues being a problem), the fast-growing tourist mecca would immediately move to the head of the un-franchised class.
Which teams could move? In Sacramento, popular sentiment is solidly against public funding of a new arena, despite the city and Kings doing some last-minute negotiations to get it on the ballot this fall. In Orlando, the DeVos family for years has fought to upgrade or replace the arena the Magic has used since its 1989 inception. The arena situation in Portland is just as troubling as the one in Seattle. There are no expansion plans.
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Article on the cost of moving the Sonics to another city.
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Bennett would rather move the Sonics to LV if the gambling issues were settled.
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The NBA will examine whether LV can be an NBA market. The city still doesn't have an NBA arena. The Bucks btw are on a year-to-year lease.
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